me and shiru did some testing and we found a way to improve squirtle manip, i did this in runs today and got the squirtle or very close to the squirtle way more often than usual.

basically you just count the number of times npcs move, but it’s a bit more complicated than that:

Fat guy moving =1
Fat guy bonking on fence =2
Lab Scientist turning =2
Lab girl moving =1 

the fat guy is loaded here: https://gyazo.com/4146c8a77d220bd0ddced516ad7d0b2f 
so if he comes on screen on a different tile you add 1, if he’s facing towards the fence you add 2
then while he’s on screen for every time you see him move you add 1

while you walk up to oak the scientist and girl cannot move, but then can when you walk to the squirtle ball so add 2 whenever the scientist moves and 1 when the girl moves

if the total number you have is equal to 4 (4 is standard) you should aim for your offset (assuming your offset has been calibrated to be average npc movements)

if your total number = 3, then you would aim 1 frame later than your offset as you need to advance the rng one more.

if your total number = 5, then you would aim 1 frame earlier than your offset as you need to keep the rng from increasing an extra time.