SIMULATION NOTES - 10,000 trials (couldn't do more without crashing Excel) - Assumes L27 Nido with DVs of 11/15/10/x/x - Assumes each move is 25% likely (this is very slightly inaccurate) - Assumes X Speed has a 25% chance of overwriting the chosen move, maximum once per fight - Assumes the fight lasts no more than 3 turns, even if Raichu has HP remaining (Thrash confusion is too complicated to simulate) - Assumes no Gen 1 misses FULL DATA: https://www.dropbox.com/s/hnlcvxve5i29v5d/Surge%20simulation%20data.xlsx?dl=0 NOTABLES - Odds of winning the fight at various HP thresholds: > 1-20 HP: 38% > 24 HP: 57% > 36 HP: 75% > 60 HP: 90% > Full HP: 98% - Most common damage clusters: > 0 (37.6%) > 20-23 (19.6%) > 30-35 (17.1%) > 54-58 (5.8%) - Average damage taken is 24.7