related: https://pastebin.com/4qcnGwZg :) ----------------------------------------------- TIME CALCULATION Level up Comparison: - Normal: 4 bad level ups for Surge - Fly splits. 1 Bad level ups for Silph Bar (L35 after arbok). - L24 for Misty: 2 bad level ups for Surge - Fly splits. 2 Bad level ups for Silph Bar. Route 3 + Lass -> Center Skip -> Skip Nerd -> L10 Paras kill -> Paras Catch. - Skip Nerd (HA x2 + PS, HA + Screech hit + HA) = 50s. - 1 less S&Q = 20 seconds. - Thrash 2 turns on final Lass before Bill = some time save on average? (not factoring in yet) - bottom hiker instead of top hiker (Leer + HA, wg) = 34 - 48 = 14s timesave. - 2nd bottom hiker instead of jrtrainerM = 1:00 - 40 = 20s timeloss. - Lose 1 turn on Starmie = 8s - Other Ranges: 6 * 0.257 + 6 * 0.45 + 6 * 0.129 = ~5s save: 50 + 20 + 14 = 84s lose: 20 + 8 + 5 = 33s total: 51s ----------------------------------------------- RISK CALCULATION Added risks in a vacuum: - Misty (63.2%) - Voltorb (0.9 * 0.75 * 0.33 * 0.257 = 5.7%) - Venonat: (1%) - Oddish (0.46 * 0.25 = 11.5%) - Bulbasaur (0.129 * 0.25 = 3%) Total: 1 - [0.368 * 0.943 * 0.99 * 0.885 * 0.97] = ~70% chance of dying. After Misty: 1 - [0.943 * 0.99 * 0.885 * 0.97] = ~20% chance of dying. ----------------------------------------------- SIMULATIONS: NUM SIMULATIONS: 10000000 Won Fights: 3681863 (36.81863%) Average turns (victory): 2.6366775 Data: https://pastebin.com/zRcPLv07 Assumptions: https://pastebin.com/9nfVp6Ay ----------------------------------------------- ROUTE 3 - Bug Catcher: 6 HA. - Shorts Guy: 4 HA. - Bug Catcher: 9 HA. > Weedle: HA + Tackle = 2HKO. > Metapod: HA x2 + Tackle (+HA if tackle miss). - Lass: HA + Tackle (or HA), HA x2. > Rat: Horn Attack 17-20 62.96-74.07% (crit: 25-30 92.59-111.11%) (Crit one shot prob.: 66.67%). - Final Bug Catcher: PS x2, PS x3. > Caterpie: Poison Sting 15-18 46.88-56.25% (crit: 20-24 62.50-75.00%) (2 shot prob.: 75.0164%). > Metapod: Poison Sting 11-14 33.33-42.42% (crit: 17-20 51.52-60.61%) (1 non-crit + 1 crit death prob.: 2.0381%). - Kill an encounter with HA (specifics coming soon). - SKIP Center. - HA count: 6 - 4 - 9 - 3 = at least 2. MT. MOON - Skip Center and Nerd - Manip: Water Gun -> Rare Candy -> Rope -> Mega Punch -> Moon Stone -> L10 Paras PS Crit Kill (not a range) -> Paras Catch. - Before Rocket: Candy -> Water Gun -> Moon Stone -> Mega Punch. - Rocket: MP, MP (+ WG) > Rat: OHKO. > Zubat: Mega Punch 32-38 91.43-108.57% (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 61.4183%) - Nerd: MP + HA, MP, MP + HA. - Kill any encounter you see: Fight top hiker, jrtrainerM. CERULEAN CITY - Center -> IT -> Get Rare Candy. NUGGET BRIDGE - Rival: MP + HA x2, HA, MP, MP + HA. - Bug Catcher: MP, MP. - Lass: MP, HA x2. - Jr. Trainer: MP, MP, HA. - Lass: MP, HA x2. - Mankey Guy: HA x2. - Nugget Rocket: MP, HA. ROUTE 25 - Bottom Hiker: WG. - Lass: MP x2. - 2nd Bottom Hiker: WG, WG, MP, WG. - Lass: MP + Thrash x2. - Teach Thrash over Water Gun. - Get Ether. - Talk to Bill, Heal, Rare Candy, Escape Rope, reactivate Instant Text. EARLY DIG ROCKET (optional): - Timeloss: 22 - 6.5 + 4.3 + 0.5 - 8 = 11.8s on average > Mitigate lost turn on Starmie = 8s > 22s in movement from bike shop. Normal movement is 6.5s from bike shop. > 0.536 * 8 = ~4.3s on average to machop. > 0.064 * 8 = ~0.5s on average to drowzee. - Escape Rope -> IT -> early Dig Rocket -> Misty -> L25 for Starmie. - Machop: Thrash 47-56 88.68-105.66% (14/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 46.4143%). > Karate Chop 5-7 6.10-8.54% (crit: 10-12 12.20-14.63%). Normal rolls: 5x2, 6x36, 7x1. Crit rolls: 10x17, 11x21, 12x1 - Drowzee: Thrash 49-58 98.00-116.00% (36/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 93.5697%). > Confusion 20-24 24.39-29.27% (crit: 32-38 39.02-46.34%) Normal rolls: 20x7, 21x10, 22x11, 23x10, 24x1. Crit rolls: 32x5, 33x7, 34x6, 35x7, 36x7, 37x6, 38x1. MISTY - Goleen: Thrash. - Misty: Thrash (slower than Starmie). > Starmie: Thrash 26-31 44.07-52.54% (crit: 44-52 74.58-88.14%) (Overall 2-hit Kill%: 41.1931%) VERMILLION - Voltorb: Thrash (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 74.2788%) > Tackle 3-4 3.30-4.40% (crit: 5-6 5.49-6.59%) Normal rolls: 3x38, 4x1 Crit rolls: 5x38, 6x1 - Pikachu: > Quick Attack 4-5 4.40-5.49% (crit: 6-8 6.59-8.79%) Normal rolls: 4x38, 5x1 Crit rolls: 6x7, 7x31, 8x1 ROCK TUNNEL - Venonat: Thrash (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 84.9960%) > Tackle 4-5 4.26-5.32% (crit: 6-8 6.38-8.51%) Normal rolls: 4x38, 5x1 Crit rolls: 6x7, 7x31, 8x1 - Oddish: Thrash (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 54.9880%) > Absorb 5-6 5.10-6.12% (crit: 8-10 8.16-10.20%) Normal rolls: 5x38, 6x1 Crit rolls: 8x13, 9x25, 10x1 - Bulbasaur: Thrash (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 87.1394%) > Vine Whip 7-9 7.14-9.18% (crit: 12-15 12.24-15.31%) Normal rolls: 7x10, 8x28, 9x1 Crit rolls: 12x4, 13x17, 14x17, 15x1 - Growlithe: > Thrash (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 63.5617%) > BubbleBeam (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 91.4263%) CELADON - Normal. TOWER - Normal. SILPH - L34 for Gyarados. SAFARI - Normal. KOGA - Normal. - L40 after 2nd Koffing. **proceed as normal** ------------------------------------ Level up Comparison: - Normal: 4 bad level ups for Surge - Fly splits. 1 Bad level ups for Silph Bar (arbok isn't in red bar). - L24 for Misty: 2 bad level ups for Surge - Fly splits. 2 Bad level ups for Silph Bar. LEVEL UPS L25 after Starmie (bad level up) L26 after Spearow. L27 after Kadabra. L28 after Raichu. (bad level up) L29 after Cubone. L30 after 1st Geodude. L31 after Vulpix. (bad level up) L32 after Kadabra. L33 is after heal pad. L35 after Gyarados. L36 after Alakazam. L37 after Marowak. (bad level up) L38 after Nidoqueen. (bad level up) L39 after 2nd juggler Drowzee. L40 after 2nd Koffing. NORMAL LEVEL UPS L26 after Starmie (bad level up) L27 after Raticate. (bad level up) L28 after Ivysaur. (bad level up) L29 after 1st Bellsprout. L30 after 2nd Slowpoke. (bad level up) L31 after Graveler. (bad level up) L32 after Gyarados L33 after 2nd Gastly. (bad level up) L35 after Arbok. (bad level up) L36 after Growlithe. L37 after Cubone. L38 after Rhyhorn. L39 after 1st juggler Kadabra. L40 after Muk.