Overall, fewer racers, but the level of competition is higher this year. Gonna be a fun tourney!

Round 3

Race 1: shiru, kukker, pulse
stacked race of wr holders and former wr holders. shiru is consistently the best racer, kukker is literally all over the place, but i think hes significantly better than pulse
Race 2: randall, machwing, main
I'm calling my shot in every race. This won't change for any set of predictions.
Even though i'm picking myself this is really anybody's race. Main and machwing are both great at this game, albeit main admittedly newer. Doesn't change the fact he's a great racer. Sorta sure machwing does early surge this time, but not sure if its great to switch up routes mid tourney with the added timesink (i'm a hypocrite tho and might switch to early Surge lmao). I think if machwing does late Surge he gets second, so ill leave the prediction as is. Again, ANY OF US COULD WIN THIS RACE.
(totally not a stolen copypasta idk what youre talking about)
Race 3: ananan, juanly, gshark
ananan is the most consistent runner, tho juanly and gshark are significantly greater challenges than anybody this late surge racer has faced yet. juanlys begging to get knocked out of the tourney after getting wr, and ill meme grant his wish and predict him to be the worst 2nd place finisher and therefore be eliminated
Race 4: pokeguy, caterknees, kadir
pokeguy gets the easiest draw of the round, tho caterknees and kadir have both proven they are not to be underestimated. still picking pokeguy tho
Race 5: pickle, jp, amoeba
yeah idk, this race is too close to call. gonna just pick based off of race experience, tho amoeba has been more consistent and better on average than jp. theres 6 possible outcomes of this race, and frankly, i think they all have basically equal probability of occurring

Round 2

Note: finally typing out my reasoning after multiple races have concluded, that being said no edits have been made to my pickems i submitted before the round started.

Race 1: randall, pokeguy, shep
pokeguy should beat me, but my round 1 pickems were rough, and i gotta be bold to catch up on pickems. and hey, more motivation for me - to still not have time to practice xd
Race 2: juanly, kukker, kadir
kukkers so darn hard to do pickems for cuz his highs are so darn high. that being said, juanly has been a top 3 racer for over a year, including #1 last year imo. rough stuff for kadir unfortunately, unless some irl rng goes wrong hes getting last with this draw
Race 3: shiru, caterknees, kr
shirus just on another level, tho i was impressed enough by caterknees to put him ahead of kr. he normally doesnt ff in tourney races, but i get the feeling he will yolo something in e4 then forfeit
Race 4: ananan, iron, jp
ananans on another level as a racer. iron is the more consistent of the other two racers, so i slightly favor him. still writing jp in to advance on time as the best 3rd place finisher this round.
Race 5: amoeba, main, viroda
main should win, but im worried enough about the tilt factor that this will be one of my bolder pickems this round
Race 6: pickle, mw, bang
mw is a tourney favorite in my eyes, but so is pickle. dude quietly steps up time and time again as a racer, so while this is probably picking against the field, im not seeing this as all that bold a prediction.
Race 7: gshark, pulse, koremin
pulse has the highest ceiling of the 3 racers, but hes too volatile for me to trust, especially against a rapidly improving gshark. with how well koremin has been doing, i wouldnt even be surprised if he wins this race.

Round 1

Race 1: pulse, qpalz (jojo dropped out of the tourney so technically he finishes third here)
pulse has the boomer mechanics, though qpalz is admittedly more up to date on strats and has more race experience
Race 2: Machwing, KR, Zenaga
cuz this is a tourney, kr will play it safe enough to not forfeit, and thats all he needs to do this round. that being said, mw wins this and proves himself a favorite in the tourney
Race 3: Pokeguy, Gshark, Jeff
pokeguy will have a more explosive start to this years tourney. also sorry gshark, that being said im heavily rooting for ya
Race 4: Main, Bang, Shep
could be a close race if main tilts, but even then its hard to imagine him losing this. shep is rapidly improving, so he definitely could finish second and/or advance on time. oh yeah, this race will be a... bang-er :D
Race 5: Pickle, Juanly, LSH
juanly vs pickle is gonna be an absolute blast. im rooting for pickle. also sorry lsh
Race 6: Kukker, Koremin, Amoeba
probably the fastest heat of this round, if amoeba runs char advancement gets dicey for him, but my enjoyment will increase. draw is anything but ideal for koremin, but their performance at the startup race firmly put them on the map
Race 7: Randall, Leaf, Ceegs
easiest pot 1 racer (sigh) gets a sneaky scary draw, but this possibly biased predictor doesnt expect an upset
Race 8: Ananan, Kadir, Viroda
ananan is the best of the three, while he late surges eyes are gonna be on if kadir and/or viroda can advance on time. my prediction has them finishing just behind the threshold one after another
Race 9: JP, Caterknees, Sheltie
caterknees has upset potential, sheltie as well. that being said, on average id guess pot order wins out
Race 10: Shiru, Iron, Odden
shiru gets a warmup race, iron comfortably advances on time. idk for odden
Advance on time (this sections surprisingly hard ngl): Juanly, Iron, KR, qpalz, Koremin, caterknees, Bang, Leaf, sheltie, odden, amoeba
Theres 3-5 advancement spots i think are really close and maybe 7-8 people i want to fill those spots with. dayum