16/78 --> L23 red bar
13/78 --> L24 red bar

<18 HP = clearly Thrash
18 HP = borderline; probably MP
19-23 HP = clearly MP
24 = borderline, probably MP
25 = borderline, unsure
26 = borderline, probably Thrash
27 = Thrash

Machop damage (note that you're 50% to take no damage)
DAMAGE	%
5		2.4
6		43.2
7		1.2
8		17.7
9		34.1
10		1.4

Geodude (estimates)
0		21.5
4		58.5
5		1.5
6		2.4
7		3.9
8		14.4
9		0.7
10		0.2
11		0.6
12		0.04
13		0.06
14		0.09
15		0.01
									From...
TOTAL (assuming Machop hits)		26 HP
5		0.5							21
6		9.3							20
7		0.3							19
8		3.8							18
9		8.7							17
10		25.6						16
11		1.4							15
12		11.5						14
13		22.3						13
14		8.0							12
15		2.0							11
16+		6.6							10