SUMMARY

Skipping Rock Slide is very low risk from full HP to 58 HP (3-10% risk). From 57HP through 43HP is when the risk starts to increase more rapidly (11-17%). Starting at 42HP is when the risk starts to runaway with a sudden 7% increase in risk and continues to rise from there. Refer to the graph and data chart down below to get a more detailed visual of the risks associated with specific HP values.

HP RANGE	RISK
103-58		3-10% ("Free")
57-43		11-17%
42-35		24-29%
34-24		32-37%
23-1		https://pastebin.com/3FJXwqaP

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DATA (Based on 50k simulation increments)

Graph: https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/328028052267204619/438559578720960515/RS_skip_deathrate.png

HP	death_rate
103	3.09%
102	3.17%
101	3.26%
100	3.32%
99	3.12%
98	3.55%
97	3.45%
96	3.42%
95	3.95%
94	3.86%
93	4.11%
92	4.30%
91	4.21%
90	4.74%
89	4.56%
88	4.82%
87	4.96%
86	5.10%
85	5.16%
84	5.28%
83	5.30%
82	5.60%
81	5.43%
80	5.69%
79	5.52%
78	5.72%
77	5.66%
76	6.11%
75	6.65%
74	6.96%
73	6.96%
72	7.72%
71	8.05%
70	8.47%
69	8.56%
68	8.69%
67	9.18%
66	8.96%
65	9.08%
64	9.23%
63	9.64%
62	9.47%
61	9.85%
60	9.66%
59	9.86%
58	10.17%
57	11.53%
56	12.42%
55	13.01%
54	12.91%
53	13.48%
52	14.64%
51	14.78%
50	14.67%
49	15.99%
48	16.13%
47	16.35%
46	16.42%
45	16.61%
44	17.03%
43	16.99%
42	24.66%
41	24.46%
40	25.26%
39	25.18%
38	26.80%
37	28.81%
36	28.60%
35	29.39%
34	32.08%
33	32.43%
32	32.82%
31	33.05%
30	33.68%
29	34.14%
28	34.06%
27	34.62%
26	34.78%
25	37.52%
24	37.40%
23	52.07%
22	57.36%
21	57.65%
20	58.13%
19	64.53%
18	65.55%
17	66.35%
16	66.67%
15	67.89%
14	69.47%
13	69.69%
12	69.84%
11	70.81%
10	71.15%
9	71.16%
8	71.14%
7	71.38%
6	73.44%
5	73.98%
4	74.58%
3	84.90%
2	85.78%
1	86.01%