0.3 = WIN
0.7*0.8 = LOSE
0.7*0.2*0.3 = WIN
0.7*0.2*0.7*0.8 = LOSE
0.7*0.2*0.7*0.2*0.3 = WIN
0.7*0.2*0.7*0.2*0.7*0.8 = LOSE
Remainder: 34.8% to win (Thunderbolt spam)