INFO - Loses about 7.5s on average, and about 8s in the best case. - Mitigates 15.0% risk for Lance & Champ with 15DV spec. - Mitigates 17.5% risk for Lance & Champ with 14DV spec. - Mitigates 14.5% risk for Lance & Champ with 13DV spec. Conclusion: Blizzard strats are worth it for a 50/30 risk threshold (17% for 8.2s). However the point of this paste is to show that Ice Beam could be a closer play than previously thought, and might be preferred if you're on a good enough run. The strongest argument in favor of this strat seems to be for 14DV Special. On a related note, the current Iceless route does not seem to be viable (mostly due to lost turns on average). I'm content enough with Blizzard's risk/reward and now how Ice Beam competes with it to abandon Iceless indefinitely. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROCK TUNNEL - DON'T get Max Ether. CELADON - Buy 10 X Accuracy, 4 X Speed, 4 X Attack, 5 X Special. - Fresh Water + Soda Pop -> Ice Beam + Rock Slide -> Fresh Water. - Poke Doll. - Drill, 10 Super Repels, 4 Super Potions. - Fly Menu: > Swap slot 2 with Super Repels -> teach Fly, teach Horn Drill over Horn Attack. > Use Super Repel, swap slot 3 with X Acc, teach Rock Slide over Bubblebeam. > Fly to Lavender. TOWER - Rival: X Acc + Drill x5. - Gastlies: RS. - Get Both Elixirs. - Poke Doll menu: Swap slot 4 with X Speeds -> Use Poke Doll. - Rocket: X Acc + Drill x3. - Center in Celadon. SILPH - Lift to 10F. - Machoke: X Acc + Drill. - Get (in order) Candy + EQ + Carbos. - Teach EQ: Swap slot 6 with X Attack, Teach Earthquake over Rock Slide, Swap slot 5 with Rare Candy, Use Carbos. - Arbok: EQ. - Get Key -> Rare Candy x2. - Silph Rival: X Acc + Drill x3, EQ, Drill. - Get Lapras. - Team Rocket: EQ x3. - Giovanni: X Atk + EQ x4. SAFARI - Snorlax Menu: Super Repel, use Elixir #1, Swap slot 7 with X Special, Heal, use Poke Flute. - Get Rare Candy. - NO CARBOS. - Get Full Restore. - Get Teeth and Surf. SABRINA - Sabrina: X Acc, X Spd, EQ x2, Drill. KOGA - Juggler 1: EQ + Thrash. - Juggler 2: EQ x2 + TB. - Koga: X Acc, X Spd, Drill x4. - Get Strength. MANSION - Super Repel, (heal), swap Ice Beam with Rare Candy, teach Strength + Surf to Lapras, teach Ice Beam over Thrash. - Basement: use Super Repel. - Get BOTH candies. - Get key -> dig. BLAINE - X Atk + EQ x3. > Arcanine: Earthquake (31/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 82.8526%) > Finish with Lapras + surf if you die. IF YOU DIE: Center after Blaine, candy x1 + Elixir after Blackbelt, candy to L51 after bruno, xspc champ. ERIKA - Beauty: IB. - Erika: IB x3. GIOVANNI - Rhyorn: IB. - Elixir #2 + Rare Candy x1. - Blackbelt: X Atk + EQ x3. > Leer = IB Machop. - Giovanni: X Spd + EQ, X Acc*** + Drill x4. > X Acc if Dugtrio uses Dig. VIRIDIAN RIVAL - X Spc + IB, IB, TB, EQ x3. > Sandslash Ranges Below (crtl+f: sranges) ELITE 4 - Center or Max Ether. - Lorelei: X Acc + Drill x5. - Elixir #3. - Bruno: IB, X Acc + Drill, Drill, IB, Drill. - Rare Candy x2. - Agatha: EQ, X Spc + IB, EQ, EQ, EQ. > Golbat: Ice Beam (24/39) (Overall 1-hit Kill%: 67.8486%) - Heal. - Lance: X Spc + TB, X Spc*** + IB x4. > 11/15: Always Set up on 1st Dragonair. > 10/14: 2nd Dragonair on 48 or less HP. > 9/13: 2nd Dragonair on 47 or less HP. - Heal. - Champ: X Spc + IB, EQ, X Acc + Drill, EQ, Drill, EQ. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sranges Viridian Rival Sandslash (12.5% crit): Slash, Swift, or Fury Swipes. - Fury Swipes (80% Accuracy): 2-5 times per use; 37.5% hit 2 times, 37.5% hit 3 times, 12.5% hit 4 times, and 12.5% hit 5 times. MOVE DEF DVs DAMAGE Slash 11 Normal: 22-26 (rolls: 22x9, 23x10, 24x10, 25x9, 26x1) Crit: 51-61 (rolls: 51x1, 52x4, 53x4, 54x4, 55x5, 56x4, 57x4, 58x4, 59x4, 60x4, 61x1) 10 Normal: 22-26 (rolls: 22x9, 23x10, 24x10, 25x9, 26x1) Crit: 52-62 (rolls: 52x1, 53x5, 54x4, 55x4, 56x4, 57x4, 58x4, 59x4, 60x4, 61x4, 62x1) 9 Normal: 22-26 (rolls: 22x9, 23x10, 24x10, 25x9, 26x1) Crit: 52-62 (rolls: 52x1, 53x5, 54x4, 55x4, 56x4, 57x4, 58x4, 59x4, 60x4, 61x4, 62x1) Swift 11 Normal: 18-22 (rolls: 18x4, 19x11, 20x12, 21x11, 22x1) Crit: 45-53 (rolls: 45x5, 46x5, 47x4, 48x5, 49x5, 50x5, 51x5, 52x4, 53x1) 10 Normal: 19-23 (rolls: 19x5, 20x11, 21x11, 22x11, 23x1) Crit: 45-53 (rolls: 45x5, 46x5, 47x4, 48x5, 49x5, 50x5, 51x5, 52x4, 53x1) 9 Normal: 19-23 (rolls: 19x5, 20x11, 21x11, 22x11, 23x1) Crit: 45-54 (rolls: 45x1, 46x4, 47x5, 48x5, 49x5, 50x4, 51x5, 52x5, 53x4, 54x1) Fury Swipes 11 Normal: 6-8 (rolls: 6x7, 7x31, 8x1) Crit: 14-17 (rolls: 14x8, 15x15, 16x15, 17x1) 10 Normal: 6-8 (rolls: 6x7, 7x31, 8x1) Crit: 14-17 (rolls: 14x8, 15x15, 16x15, 17x1) 9 Normal: 6-8 (rolls: 6x7, 7x31, 8x1) Crit: 14-17 (rolls: 14x8, 15x15, 16x15, 17x1) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Celadon Shopping: $26424 -> -14650 -> 11774 -> -700 -> 11074 -> -1000 -> 10074 -> -2000 -> 8074 -> -5000 -> 3074 -> -2800 -> 224 X ATTACKS: 4 X SPEEDS: 4 X SPECIALS: 5 X ACCURACYS: 10 X item cost: 14650 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TIME CALCULATION Less 1hko text (0.4s): 0.4s save - Viridian Rival (1) = 1 total More Crit Text on average (0.43s): 1 * 0.43 * 0.164 = 0.1s lose - Viridian Rival (1) = 1 total Less flash animation (0.92s): 0.92 + 1.3s for IB on champ = 2.4 save - Erika (2), Blackbelt (-2.8), Lance (2) = 1.2 total More super effective text (0.56s): 1.7s lose - Viridian Rival (1), lance (2) = 3 Average Saved Turns: 0.19 + 0.1 + 0.19 + 0.1 + 0.1 - 0.2 + 0.1 = 0.58 save average. - erika (0.19), Rhyhorn (0.1), Blackbelt (0.19), viridian rival (0.1), Bruno (0.1), Agatha (-0.2), Lance (0.1). Animation off red bar Animation on red bar Blizz 53 48 211 206 IB 53 48 133 128 Ice beam timing (Assume getting rock slide): - get fresh water = 3.9s - acquire IB = 8.5s - acquire Blizzard = 2s - Net: -10.4s PROS Average Best - Animations -2.4 -3.1 - Less OHKO Text -0.3 -0.4 - Turns Saved -3.5 -0.0 - Better Mansion Menu -1.5 -1.5 TOTAL -7.7 -5.0 CONS Average Best - Get Ice Beam +10.4 +10.4 - More SE Text +1.7 +1.7 - Heal for Viridian Rival +2.0 +0.0 - Hidden Mansion Candy +1.0 +1.0 TOTAL +15.1 +13.1 NET +7.4s +8.1s ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WIN % FOR LANCE & CHAMP 15dv spec - NORMAL: 0.70446 * 0.78271484375 = 0.551391298828125 - ICE BEAM LANCE (L54): 0.804154 * 0.87158203125 = 0.7008861767578125 - DIFFERENCE: 0.1494948779296875 14dv spec - NORMAL: 0.656779 * 0.78271484375 = 0.51407067236328125 - ICE BEAM LANCE (L54): 0.790342 * 0.87158203125 = 0.6888478857421875 - DIFFERENCE: 0.17477721337890625 13dv spec - NORMAL: 0.703968 * 0.78271484375 = 0.551006203125 - ICE BEAM LANCE (L54): 0.794568 * 0.87158203125 = 0.69253119140625 - DIFFERENCE: 0.14152498828125 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SIMULATIONS NORMAL LANCE (15dv spec) Num Simulations: 1000000 nidoking died 29.554000% ICE BEAM LANCE (L54 & 15dv spec) Num Simulations: 1000000 nidoking died 19.584600% NORMAL LANCE (14dv spec) Num Simulations: 1000000 nidoking died 34.322100% ICE BEAM LANCE (L54 & 14dv spec) - 2nd dragonair on 48 or less HP. Num Simulations: 500000 nidoking died 20.965800% NORMAL LANCE (13dv spec) Num Simulations: 1000000 nidoking died 29.603200% ICE BEAM LANCE (L54 & 13dv spec) - 2nd dragonair on 47 or less HP. Num Simulations: 500000 nidoking died 20.543200%