Assuming 2 Calciums and 31 IV

FIGHT				WIN%		RISKS
Lorelei 1			75%			Crit Surf, crit Surf, FB miss
Bruno 1				75%			94% range, FB miss, 94% range, 94% range
Agatha 1			100%		--
Lance 1				88%			Crit Hyper Beam, FB miss
Champion 1			72%			Crit Aerial Ace, Sand-Attack on 3rd X Special turn while not in Blaze, FB miss, Crit E-speed
TOTAL				36%

Lorelei 2			76%			Overheat miss, crit Surf, Overheat miss
Bruno 2				64%			FB miss, FB miss, Overheat miss, 94% range
Agatha 2			77%			FB miss, Overheat miss
Lance 2				84%			Crit Hyper Beam, FB miss into Hyper Beam
Champion 2			91%			Crit Rock Tomb, crit E-speed
TOTAL				29%

GRAND TOTAL			10%