GOOD	
Skip Hiker			-24.7
Skip wild kill		-14.2 (more if you manip a bird in this patch)

BAD
Wait for Hiker 		+1.9 (less if you manip)
Wait for Hiker		+1.9
L15 Carvanha		+21.7
L19 Wingull			+3.3
One fewer Potion	+2.0

TOTAL				-8.1