L7 1026 Mudkip (Naughty 21/23/28/30/29/29) Tackling a L4 Ralts
16 HP (59.38%)
100% with 6 Def (24-/x/x) (12.5%)
83.5% with 7 Def (25+/24-/24-) (69.13%)
0.02% with 8 Def (x/25+/25+) (18.38%)
17 HP (40.63%)
98.54% with 6 Def (24-/x/x) (12.5%)
15.41% with 7 Def (25+/24-/24-) (69.13%)
0% with 8 Def (x/25+/25+) (18.38%)

Total chance of 3HKO w/o Crits: 0.0742 + 0.3428 + 0 + 0.0500 + 0.0433 + 0 = 0.5103 = 51.03%