ODDS OF HITTING EACH SPINNER (VERY ROUGH ESTIMATES)
Walking (wait)				0.18				
Walking (pause buffer)			0.15
Walking (pause buffer + turn frame)	0.16
Biking (wait)				0.16		
Biking (pause buffer)			0.13
Biking (pause buffer + turn frame)	0.14
Biking (second tile)			0.12
Douglas					0.53

Russell		0.328		0.82*0.82
Anthony		0.150		0.85
Benny		0.278		0.85*0.85
Ivan		0.582		0.84*0.88*0.84*0.88*0.87*0.88
Irwin		0.243		0.87*0.87
Greg		0.130		0.87
Dana		0.160		0.84
Olivia		0.160		0.84
Ernest (1)	0.165		0.82 or 0.85 (depends on value of exp.)
Kaylee		0.140		0.86 (greater chance of getting stuck)
Benjamin	0.150		0.85 (greater chance of getting stuck)
Rocket		0.278		0.85*0.85
Douglas		0.530		0.47
Ernest (2)	0.150		0.85
Joyce		0.245		0.8675*0.87
Heidi		0.447		0.84*0.87*0.87*0.87	
Martha		0.150		0.85
Doris		0.150		0.85
Tom		0.364		0.84*0.87*0.87

-----

If spinnerless or only hit Russell through Bugsy:

COMBINATION			LIKELIHOOD	UNDERGROUND ADDS LV. 30?
No spinners			0.159		No
Ivan				0.230		No
Irwin				0.053		No
Greg				0.025		No
Dana				0.031		No
Olivia				0.031		No
Ernest				0.035		Yes
Ivan+Irwin			0.074		Yes
Ivan+Greg			0.034		Yes
Ivan+Dana			0.044		Yes
Ivan+Olivia			0.044		Yes
Ivan+Ernest			0.049		Yes
Irwin+Greg			0.008		Yes
Irwin+Dana			0.010		Yes
Irwin+Olivia			0.010		Yes
Irwin+Ernest			0.011		Yes
Greg+Dana			0.005		Yes
Greg+Olivia			0.005		No
Greg+Ernest			0.005		Yes
Dana+Olivia			0.006		Yes
Dana+Ernest			0.006		No
Olivia+Ernest			0.006		Yes
Ivan+Irwin+Greg			0.011		Yes
Ivan+Irwin+Dana			0.014		Yes
Ivan+Irwin+Olivia		0.014		Yes
Ivan+Irwin+Ernest		0.013		No
Ivan+Greg+Dana			0.007		Yes
Ivan+Greg+Olivia		0.007		Yes
Ivan+Greg+Ernest		0.007		No
Ivan+Dana+Olivia		0.008		Yes
Ivan+Dana+Ernest		0.009		No
Ivan+Olivia+Ernest		0.009		No
Irwin+Greg+Dana			0.002		Yes
Irwin+Greg+Olivia		0.001		Yes
Irwin+Greg+Ernest		0.001		No
Irwin+Dana+Olivia		0.002		Yes
Irwin+Dana+Ernest		0.002		No
Irwin+Olivia+Ernest		0.002		No
Greg+Dana+Olivia		0.001		Yes
Greg+Dana+Ernest		0.001		No
Greg+Olivia+Ernest		0.001		No
Dana+Olivia+Ernest		0.001		No

Chance of getting Lv. 30 from strat: 40.8%
Time saved from getting Lv. 30 from early underground: ~17s (15 for candy + 2 for Poliwrath/Pryce split)
Average time saved: 6.9 seconds