1-((23/24)*(15/16)+1/24 = 0.05989 (Gyara range miss)
.9401*(23/24)*(1/16)*.95*.99 = 0.05295 (Mud Shot 1/16)
.9401*(1/24)*.99 = 0.03878 (Mud Shot crit)
.9401*.01*.3 = .00282 (Scald burn)
Total Win Chance: 1-0.05989-0.05295-0.03878-.00282= 0.84556

(1/24)*(14/16) = 0.03646 (Crit Gyara + miss range)
((23/24)+(1/24)*(2/16))*(.25)*(1/24) = 0.01004 (Crobat U-Turn crit)
((23/24)+(1/24)*(2/16))*(.25)*(23/24)*(1/24) = 0.00962 (Weavile Dig 1 Crit on Crobat U-Turn)
((23/24)+(1/24)*(2/16))*(.25)*(23/24)*(23/24)*(1/24) = 0.00922 (Weavile Dig 2 Crit on Crobat U-Turn)
((23/24)+(1/24)*(2/16))*(.25)*(23/24)*(23/24)*(23/24)*(1/24) = 0.00833 (Crobat U-Turn 2 Crit on Crobat U-Turn)
((23/24)+(1/24)*(2/16))*(.75)*(1/24) = 0.03011 (Weavile Dig Crit on Crobat Tailwind)
Total Win Chance:1-0.03646-0.01004-0.00962-0.00922-0.00833-0.03011=0.89622

1-(1/8)*(.5)+(1/24)*(.25)= 0.94792