Crits ignored for the purposes of this test
This requires you to be able to recognize when a hit does 6 damage, which requires a basic understanding of the possible damage rolls for the Pooch fight. 
With 6 Def (29-/x/x) (15.0%):
	18.8% to do 6 with 10 Atk (19-/x/x) (10%)
	0% with 11+ Atk (20+/0+/0+) (90%)
With 7 Def (30+/29-/29-) (79.8%):
	93.8% to do 6 with 10 Atk (19-/x/x) (10%)
	18.8% to do 6 with 11-12 Atk (20+/19-/x) (48.5%)
	0% with 13+ Atk (x/20+/0+) (41.5%)
With 8 Def (x/30+/30+) (5.2%):
	93.8% to do 6 with 10-11 Atk (0+/x/x) (16%)
	18.8% to do 6 with 12-13 Atk (x/0+/19-) (78%)
	0% with 14 Atk (x/x/20+) (6%)

Total chance to do 6 Damage: .00282 + 0 + .07485 + .07276 + 0 + .0078 + .0076 + 0 = 16.583%
Share of chance to do 6 Damage from Unrunnable Kips: (.00282 + .07485 + (27.25/48.5)*.07276 + .0078) / .16583 = 76.193%